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Submitted: 03 June 2007
HERDIN Record #: PCHRD060207060646

Estimating the risk of in-hospital mortality after CABG surgery at Philippine Heart Center: A comparison of two prediction models.

Gerard Vilela,
Josephine C. Milo

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OBJECTIVE: To validate the ACC/AHA guideline of estimating perioperative mortality after CABG surgery and compare with the previously validated PHC Risk Index and determine which reliably
predicts mortality among patients at Philippine Heart Center.

DESIGN: Prospective Cohort Study

POPULATION AND SETTING: All patients admitted at Philippine Heart Center from January-December 2003 who underwent CABG.

METHODS: Patients who underwent CABG Surgery were evaluated and scored making use of both the AHA and PHC predicting models: The estimated risk of death was compared with the outcome upon discharge. Validity measures such as Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values for each model were determined.

RESULTS: Both The ROC curve was used to determine the cutoff score in both Prediction Models. In the AHA Scoring, a total score of 6 was able to predict mortality, however this has a low positive predictive value with a specificity of 87.11 percent and sensitivity of 45.45 percent. In the PHC risk index, the cut off score differentiating the patients with poor outcome is 5 with a specificity of 83.97 percent and 72.73 percent.

Publication Type
Journal
Publication Sub Type
Journal Article, Original
Title
Philippine Heart Center Journal
Frequency
Annual
Publication Date
January-December 2005
Volume
11
Page(s)
6-12

Objectives

To validate the ACC/AHA guideline of estimating perioperative mortality after CABG surgery and compare with the previously validated PHC Risk Index and determine which reliably predicts mortality among patients at Philippine Heart Center.

LocationLocation CodeAvailable FormatAvailability
Philippine Council for Health Research and Development Library Abstract Print Format (Request Document)

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